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Call To Discernment

Calling Christians to Biblical Christianity. Christians must have discernment in all areas of life in this end time of deception, realizing also that American leadership of both political parties are leading us into the New World Order of the coming antichrist. Do not be conformed to this world. Rom. 12:2. Expose the deeds of darkness. Eph. 5:11. "He that is not zealous against error, is not likely to be zealous for truth." J.C. Ryle ----- [NEW AND IMPROVED BLOG UNDER CONSTRUCTION] 

June 30, 2015

10:26 PM - Economic Collapse and Martial Law This Fall?

Recently the amount of fear mongering in alternative media regarding the fall of 2015 reached hyper levels, so much so that last week I emailed World Affairs Brief analyst Joel Skousen for his confirmation that I was right in not falling for it. Two such examples of hyper fear of an economic collapse in America this fall are here and here. The first article in particular needs to be read to better understand what follows below. Many freedom movement websites convey the same message. Even Ron Paul has gotten into the act appearing on TV predicting possible economic collapse this fall. But he is being paid to do it to promote a doom and gloom newsletter. Jade Helm exercises and a multitude of rumors surrounding it are also being used to hype the fear. But it would take a lot more troops than those involved to initiate and enforce martial law nationwide.

Many Christians are involved in this movement to prepare for the worst or flee. Here is one such example. Chuck Missler and his wife moved to New Zealand and Chuck believes in the pre-trib rapture as I do. Whether or not America is end time economic Babylon is highly debatable. Personally I do not believe fleeing is a proper Christian response. It goes against everything the New Testament teaches and conveys a message of cowardice and preference to saving one's physical life over being salt and light to a wicked and perverse culture. Revelation 18:4 has been taken out of context and misused by many. Even if America is the economic Babylon in Revelation, and I agree until a better candidate arises, the Church will not be here when God's wrath is unleashed upon it. Fleeing America is not something the average person can do anyway. And perceived benefits may quickly disappear as it has in the past in many south American countries. The NWO is going to be worldwide and there will be no escape anywhere on earth except for a Jewish remnant God miraculously preserves. Until God calls us home the best place to be is in familiar territory, preferably away from large cities. Stan Deyo and his wife moved from Australia back to America several years ago. Another thing to keep in mind is that a lot of these predictions come from those making money from their fear mongering. Steve Quayle in particular has been yearly predicting imminent catastrophe of one kind or another for at least 30 years. There are a number of posts still on the internet of failed predictions of imminent economic collapse and martial law. Here is one for 2010. Economic Collapse – Martial Law – 24 Experts Warn of 2010 Meltdown And of course who can forget Y2K and the many Christians predicting the worst.

All that said this is the end times and almost anything could happen as things gradually deteriorate, especially as America increasingly ridicules and mocks God. I do believe a severe stock market correction is overdue and it is always a good idea to prepare for short term emergencies. But when it comes to economic forecasting and gloom and doom in general the majority is almost always wrong whether it's in mainstream society or the freedom movement. For my whole life I have never been one to follow the crowd. Mr. Skousen addressed the topic in his newsletter last week and with permission I have excepted a significant part of it here. Though he is in the preparedness movement and believes in a post trib rapture few people can match his geo-political expertise. Breaks in the article are indicated by dotted lines. And with this post I am going to take a rest from so much news.

World Affairs Brief, June 26, 2015 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World. Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen's World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com).

WILL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE PREDICTIONS FINALLY COME TRUE THIS FALL?
Each year about this time there are several internet analysts predicting a massive economic collapse in October. This year it is a tsunami of hype that may or may not come true. Even Ron Paul’s comments about the un-sustainability of the dollar and the collapse of the entire US financial system added fuel to the fire. But my biggest issue is with the predictions of imminent collapse. In the past four or five years that I have been tracking these collapse predictions, they always come up empty. Sadly, rather than admit error, the collapse crowd peddles the same theme next year with even more scary scenarios. Most analysts are not wrong about the root problems of debt, speculation and fiat money, but they do not understand or address the massive manipulation of the markets by government and the powers of the FED—who can keep things going and postpone collapse until war comes when they will claim it is not their fault. This week, I will explain why any collapse prediction is invalid without coming to grips with the power of manipulation and the fact that there are no signs that globalists are maneuvering to let it fall.

October seems to be the favored month to trigger market crashes considering the manipulated stock market crashes of 1929 and 1987, but September is also historically a bad month. This time the shaky European bond market is providing fodder for the “sky is falling” crowd, where big liquidity problems threaten to create panic. The irrational US stock market, on the other hand, continues to rise, driven by new money from the FED and the same bandwagon effect that got people in trouble in 1929. The big difference between now and then, as I just mentioned, is the degree of control the FED has over money creation, interest rates, and secret relationships with “Too Big to Fail” banks and Wall Street investment houses that are used as conduits for liquidity injections into the markets in order to cause, halt, or take advantage of panic buying or selling.
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I think the notion that the PTB have it calendared for this fall is disinformation. The real insiders would know a more precise time frame (so these few can make money off the collapse rather than go down with it). This “insider tip” about getting prepared implies that the PTB intend to create more than just economic chaos. Many pundits on the conservative side keep saying (based on other bogus insiders like the “DHS informant”) that the globalist-engineered collapse will cause social unrest which, in turn, will justify martial law.

This is very bad analysis because the government would clearly get the blame. The only way to trigger a full collapse is to cut the money supply drastically and fail to provide liquidity when thousands of speculators are in trouble. There are hundreds of FED watchers who would know to the day when the FED cut the money supply and caused a collapse.

But if they wait until the coming world war then they can blame all these horrific changes on the enemy—which is why the globalists are so eager to provoke the war. It has worked before and it will work again, diverting the blame from them to the war. These globalists aren’t stupid and always seek to use deception and crises to cover for their evil agenda.
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Snyder’s praise is a very selective recitation of Williams’ track record focusing only on the few times he has been right. What Snyder fails to tell his readers is that Williams was predicting collapse, based on his insider’s tips from 2010 through 2012. And he predicted collapse on and off during 2013 and 2014 until he retracted them for a brief time knowing that his track record was so dismal.

I’m absolutely certain that Williams is being played for a fool by his contacts. As I’ve written before in the WAB, nobody who is an insider is going to get away with leaking the globalist’s intentions to someone like Pastor Williams (who may be sincere) who will parade those tips to the whole world—at least not without getting caught. The NSA tracks all communications, especially those of insiders to make sure no one “talks out of school.” If this source keeps talking to Williams it is only because it is planned and he is spreading disinformation to make Williams look like a fool—which he is for believing him.
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As you can see, all of these were wrong on timing. But they’ll be right eventually—in a way. It’s true that fiat money always ends badly, but the financial PTB know this and don’t want to be left holding the bag. That’s why they will continue to keep up the illusion of recovery until there is a sufficient external crisis (probably war) that will justify a new world fiat currency—and it won’t be a gold-backed currency despite the wishful thinking of those hyping China’s accumulation of gold reserves.
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Ron Paul rightly believes that continual deficits and money creation cannot continue indefinitely. But he clearly doesn’t understand that the FED can keep things afloat a lot longer by keeping overall inflation of the money supply below 10%-15%. He also doesn’t have much understanding of the coming war agenda, which is the globalist’s escape manuever to avoid blame. Ron doesn’t even see the Russian threat. Like most libertarians, he kind of assumes that all the enemies of the globalists must be our friends. Not true.

Not seeing the crisis creation path of war, it’s easy for Ron to get caught up in the collapse predictions based upon the economy’s shaky fundamentals. That’s why he’s been hired on to imminent collapse predictors including Stansberry Research who pays him for his commentary. Stansberry is a perennial collapse prediction firm that sells alternative investment plans and buys time on alternative news web sites to promote their interviews with Paul. That’s why Ron Paul’s collapse predictions are everywhere on the web.
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As for the claims by the collapse crowd that the dollar is about to implode let me reiterate some very clear arguments I made in that 2012 WAB about what has to happen for a currency to collapse to occur. None of these are happening yet and my arguments have not been addressed by the collapse crowd:

Let me quickly review, once again, the reasons why a collapse or devaluation of the dollar, hyperinflation, or the dollar quickly losing its reserve currency status is not imminent and can’t happen quickly any time in the next few years:

1) Collapse: Collapse of a currency can only happen if it becomes relatively worthless in a short period of time. Inflation of the currency at high rates is the only thing that can cause this, ending either in devaluation and/or hyperinflation. Neither of these are real threats to the dollar currently despite the huge debt crisis.

2) Devaluation: Devaluation happens when a currency value is pegged to another at a fixed exchange rate, and the smaller currency inflates at a more rapid rate than the pegged currency causing an imbalance in demand which eventually causes the peg to be broken and a new fixed rate set. The dollar isn’t pegged to anything—it’s the standard. In a non-pegged system an informal devaluation can only occur if the dollar is being inflated at a much higher rate than other currencies. That isn’t happening because every other currency is inflating about the same rate proportional to their base as is the dollar. In fact, other currencies approve of US inflation, because it allows them to inflate their currency while maintaining the same relative exchange rate with the dollar.

3) Hyperinflation: Two things must be present for hyperinflation to happen. First, you must start with a relatively small money supply that can be expanded multiple times. The dollar base is so large, after having been inflated and spread around the world for so long that it literally can’t be inflated rapidly as compared to smaller currencies. The quantity of dollars in circulation is estimated at $300 trillion (not counting the huge non-monetized economy of derivatives, contracts and hedges perhaps as big as $500T). The FED could create $30T a year and it wouldn’t exceed 10% inflation rate. Even that huge amount isn’t hyperinflation, which results in panic spending due to rapidly rising prices. Second, a nation has to have an automatic injection mechanism to put increasing quantities of money into the pockets of consumers so they can keep up with rising prices, otherwise the inflation kills stops economic growth. We don’t have that, and what we do have (food stamps, unemployment compensation, Soc. Sec., etc,) isn’t effectively indexed to inflation. Without the public’s ability to get more money each month as in Germany in 1936, the economy retracts as people can’t keep up, and spending decreases—again stopping hyperinflation and causing stagflation.

4) Loss of Reserve Status. This also can’t happen anytime soon since the dollar base is so much larger than any other currency. You’d have to print up probably 5 times the existing quantities of Euros to supplant the dollar and that would have devastating inflationary effects on the Eurozone. The same with the British Pound. No one would trust the Chinese Yen because there’s no transparency there either. What about a basket of currencies? —The same problem exists there as in the EU—even their strict rules about one nation expanding their Euros over another, the southern tier of nations found ways of cheating. No one can trust any of these voluntary agreements anymore. 

If there is a real threat right now, it’s the huge derivatives and hedge fund bubble—trillions of dollars committed in contracts but almost without actual asset backing. No big paper investment happens today with CDS derivative insurance or hedging, and little of that can actually be paid to the beneficiary if a sufficient crisis develops. However, this mainly affects the huge speculative economy—and these have the most power to get a bailout from their fellows at the FED. 

Rather than see a collapse coming this year or even by 2014, I think we are going to see another mild inflationary recovery (not a true recovery), but one where inflation finally starts to overpower deflationary forces and people start to spend again, and hire. It won’t be big, but it will help the PTB extend this debt spiral until the end of the decade where even bigger world conflicts will help them escape final blame. Don’t underestimate the power of the PTB to keep inflating enough to stave off default and yet keep inflation below 10%. 

That said, we are dealing with conspiracies here—and the PTB could simply decide to pull the plug on the economy. All they would have to do is stop intervening in the huge derivative market to keep those contracts from defaulting, as they have been recently in Europe. The derivatives bubble is by far the largest ponzi scheme ever—trillions in promises to pay without any means to make good on all those promises, even after the hedges balance out the excess exposure.

In fact, the derivative mess has been threatening to collapse ever since AIG in 2008, and yet the financial PTB continue to stop the derivative contracts from being collected on. In Europe, for example, they kept insisting that no default had occurred when investors in Greek bonds had to take a 50% haircut (loss on their bond investments). Hence no one could make good on those CDS default swap insurance policies (which are sold as guarantees on all these big risky investments). They change the rules all the time, and control the higher powers that might rule those changes illegal. I think they can keep this up for several more years. 
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One of the most dramatic warnings about collapse came from Alex Jones in his special video alert relaying how he had “two different calls” from “extremely prominent wealthy people” warning him about what is coming by the end of this year and asking him why he isn’t leaving the United States “before October.” He concludes that “the elite” are leaving the country and you should too.

I think that’s an incorrect deduction about the elite. The real insider elite aren’t leaving the country, even though some do have offshore residences and most have offshore bank accounts. The elite are even building sheltering structures under their resort homes because they know a nuclear war is coming.

Yes, there is a wave of wealthy people, like the ones calling Alex, hell bent on getting out of the country to what they think are safe havens like Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands. As the most noted author in the country on Strategy Relocation, I get tons of calls about off-shore retreat strategies, but I can’t recommend them. It’s not a smart strategy at all.

These people labor under the very mistaken impression that somehow the rest of the world is not going to be affected by the eventual collapse of the US dollar and the US economy, which isn’t true. All of these foreign destinations are heavily reliant on world trade, tourism and the stability of the dollar. All of their budgets are in deficit—some worse than others—but none are going to be able to provide American ex-patriots the current cheap, peaceful expat lifestyle they all read about on the net.

Worse yet for the Pacific island retreats is the threat of conquest in the next world war. China is planning to conquer their part of the world—exactly like Japan did in WWII—to seize all of the island territory on the Pacific ring. This will include Australia (where China has already bought up all the mineral rights), New Zealand and the Pacific islands. Try factoring in a Chinese occupation into your retreat plans (and the need to blend in or hide in order to survive) and the US begins to look pretty good.

A lot of people think they are going to be able to avoid the affects of the coming nuclear war by being in South America or in the Pacific. Yes, it’s true, there probably won’t be many nuclear targets in those areas, but that’s only a small part of the threats you face in war. Almost half the nations in South America presently have outright communist or former communist leaders who are actively promoting ties with Russia and China. Every nation will have to choose sides in a world war and with the growing reputation of the US as the bully of the world I wouldn’t count on a favorable long-term reception for Americans in foreign countries.

When these nation’s socialist welfare budgets become even more bankrupt than they are (look at Venezuela) the rapacious Left goes after foreign property owners and bank accounts first. Mexico has confiscated dollar accounts twice already.
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Some summary comments: While I have spoken out vigorously against the imminent collapse of the dollar and the entire fiat money system short of war (which is still a few years away), I do believe it is likely that there will be a significant correction in both the bond and stock markets—as much as 20%. If that happens this fall, the collapse crowd will say it’s a collapse, but it won’t be. The FED will intervene and it has a lot more room to expand the money supply before reaching high levels of inflation.

Remember, that economies NEVER completely collapse except under conditions of war where there is a major destruction and dislocation of structures and people—or hyperinflation, which is unlikely without any formal indexing system to allow people to keep paying higher and higher prices.



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